MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – While much uncertainty remains for the future of the national economy, John Deskins, PhD Director and Associate Professor of Economics from the West Virginia University John Chambers School of Business and Economics, believes the state will be somewhat insulated from negative national trends.
On WAJR’s “Talk of the Town,” Deskins said inflation is about twice as high as economists believe it should be to encourage economic expansion. The subsequent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have been the highest since the early 1980’s, when interest rates sparked a two-year recession.
“We do think growth is probably going to be slow for the coming five years. That’s true here; that’s true nationally; that’s true in a lot of states, so we’re not unique in that,” Deskins said. “But you have to remember the context: slow growth is a heck of a lot better than a recession.”
For the northern part of the state, Deskins believes diversity and continued growth are creating a resilient economic environment. The area has lost about 2,000 jobs since 2018, but expansion at the North Central West Virginia Airport, the I-79 Technology Park, and the Monongalia County area has stabilized the losses.
“When you have positive momentum, you have people moving into the area, and those people tend to be younger, more healthy, better educated, and more prepared for the workforce,” Deskins said. “That makes the area more attractive to potential businesses, and more businesses move in.”
In that slow growth model, Deskins said Marion County is poised to fare the best with a mix of government, technology, and health care; Monongalia County with manufacturing, education, and technology; and Harrison County in the aviation, technology, and education sectors.
“We think Marion will exhibit the fastest rate of growth going forward. Marion has suffered the most over the last decade, so we think there’s going to be a bounce back there,” Deskins said. “We think Mon will continue to experience relatively healthy growth, and we think Harrison will experience some growth.”
From Harrison County to the Pennsylvania state line, the range of businesses includes manufacturing, logistics, technology, health care, education, and government, providing a diverse base to grow from. Deskins said that range of businesses is the envy of many areas nationwide.
“That’s kind of what we see; I can’t point to just one thing that’s driving the growth,” Deskins said. “It’s healthier growth; it’s broad-based, multiple sectors moving in the right direction—exactly what you want.”
The Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) was a recent announcement that did not include the Deskins forecast, but he expects labor growth as a result. The project also puts more attention on the state, adding to the momentum effect that could create more jobs here and attract more investment with new opportunities for growth.
“All together, it’s going to be a great boost for West Virginia,” Deskins said. “It’s something that fits within our comparative advantage; that’s the place we need to be competing nationally with other states.”